Le Rouge Et Le Noir

The Cowboy had the opportunity to speak with the Managing Editor of  The Economist this week; he even had his picture taken with him.  You can see the photograph of us at the end of this post.

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Published in: on May 1, 2009 at 21:00  Comments Off on Le Rouge Et Le Noir  
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Wolf & Bears

The trail has been a bit rocky for the last week.  Between challenging riding conditions and dark nights, it’s been tough to do much writing.

There have also been some tense standoffs in the high country:

Here’s Wolf’s column in yesterday’s FT.  The Cowboy likes his analysis and agrees with his assessment.  (Here without registration.)

Money quote:

“Is the worst behind us? In a word, No. The rate of economic decline is decelerating. But it is too soon even to be sure of a turnround, let alone of a return to rapid growth. Yet more remote is elimination of excess capacity. Most remote of all is an end to deleveraging. Complacency is perilous. These are still early days.”

The Cowboy gave his view of green shoots a couple of weeks ago.

We’re all taking turns with the carcass of the financial system.  Despite some bullishness in the markets, the Cowboy agrees with Wolf that from a macroeconomic perspective, the bears have the advantage and they’re not done picking at the carcass.

Published in: on April 23, 2009 at 11:30  Comments Off on Wolf & Bears  
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Nip / Tuck

Nice guys, those plastic surgeons.With every one trying to pay down debt, we’re trapped in a vicious cycle.  If we’re all getting liposuction, eventually there’s no need for plastic surgeons.  So, it’s great that we’re on a diet and everything – suddenly concerned about our past excesses.  And it’s okay that we want to look good.  But how do we maintain that healthy weight?  How do we stop our anorexic spiral?  And what about those poor surgeons?

I know – weird analogy, but it’s what came to me.  Richard Koo, the Chief Economist at the Nomura Research Institute (part of one of Japan’s major conglomerates that includes Japan’s best known, eponymous securities firm), did a presentation last month that has been floating around the economic dens of iniquity.  There has been much talk for a while about the “balance sheet recession” that Koo describes.

With all of the talk about Japan’s lost decade, and how the current crisis has so many similarities, Koo lays out a comparison very nicely.  He even tosses in some Asian vaqueros by the names of Yin and Yang (one wears a white hat, the other a black one).

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Published in: on April 10, 2009 at 15:30  Comments Off on Nip / Tuck  
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